Your First Trade
This guide walks you through making your first prediction market trade, step by step. Choose your platform and follow the instructions to go from zero to your first position.
Trading involves financial risk. You can lose your entire investment.
- Only trade money you can afford to lose
- Start small (I recommend $10 to $50 for your first trade)
- Read the market resolution rules before trading
- This is educational content, not financial advice
Steps verified against official platform interfaces as of January 2025. UI may change; always refer to official platform help for the latest guidance.
Choose Your Platform
Select the platform you will use:
For: International users (non-US)
Requirements:
- Crypto wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet, or others)
- USDC stablecoin
- Non-US residence
Polymarket: Step-by-Step Guide
Follow these steps to make your first trade on Polymarket:
Create Your Account
Go to polymarket.com and click "Sign Up."
You have two options:
- Email signup: Create an account with your email (Polymarket creates a wallet for you)
- Connect wallet: Use an existing wallet like MetaMask or Coinbase Wallet
For beginners, email signup is simpler. For crypto users, connecting an existing wallet gives you more control.
Get USDC
Polymarket uses USDC, a stablecoin pegged to 1 USD. You need USDC on the Polygon network.
Option A: Buy directly on Polymarket
- Click "Deposit" in your portfolio
- Use a card to buy USDC through their partner (fees apply)
Option B: Transfer from another wallet
- Buy USDC on a crypto exchange (Coinbase, Binance, etc.)
- Withdraw to Polygon network
- Send to your Polymarket wallet address
For your first trade, buying directly on Polymarket is fastest despite small fees.
Find a Market
Browse markets or use the search function. For your first trade, look for:
- High liquidity markets (more volume, easier to trade)
- Near-term resolution (faster feedback on your trade)
- Topics you understand (easier to form an opinion)
Popular categories: US politics, crypto, sports, Fed decisions
Read the Market Details
Before trading, always check:
- Resolution rules: How will the outcome be determined?
- Resolution source: What sources will be used?
- End date: When does trading close?
- Current volume: Is there enough liquidity?
Click on any market to see its full details page.
Decide Your Position
Look at the current price and ask yourself:
- Do I think Yes is underpriced? → Buy Yes
- Do I think No is underpriced? → Buy No
Remember: Price = probability. If Yes is at $0.60, the market thinks there is a 60% chance.
Place Your Order
- Click "Buy Yes" or "Buy No"
- Enter the amount you want to spend (start with $10 to $20)
- Review the order details:
- Number of shares you will receive
- Average price per share
- Potential profit if you win
- Click "Confirm" to execute
View Your Position
After the trade executes:
- Go to your Portfolio
- See your position under "Active Positions"
- Track the current value and P&L
Your position will update as the market price changes.
Polymarket Tips
- Use limit orders for better prices if you are not in a hurry
- Start with popular markets that have tight spreads
- Your funds remain in your wallet until you trade
- You can sell your position anytime before resolution
Kalshi: Step-by-Step Guide
Follow these steps to make your first trade on Kalshi:
Create Your Account
Go to kalshi.com and click "Sign Up."
You will need:
- Email address
- Phone number
- Government-issued ID (driver's license or passport)
- Social Security Number (for tax reporting)
Account creation takes a few minutes. Verification may take up to 24 hours.
Complete Identity Verification
Kalshi requires identity verification as a CFTC-regulated exchange.
- Upload a photo of your government ID
- Take a selfie for identity matching
- Provide your SSN for tax reporting
- Wait for verification (usually minutes to hours)
You cannot trade until verification completes.
Deposit Funds
Add USD to your account:
- ACH bank transfer: Free, takes 1 to 3 business days
- Debit card: Instant, small fee applies
- Wire transfer: For larger amounts
For your first trade, debit card is fastest. Start with $20 to $50.
Browse Markets
Explore Kalshi's market categories:
- Economics: Fed rates, inflation, GDP
- Weather: Temperature, hurricanes
- Politics: Elections, policy
- Entertainment: Awards, sports
Use filters to find markets by category, resolution date, or popularity.
Read the Contract Specs
Click on any market to see:
- Contract specifications: Exactly what you are trading
- Resolution source: How outcomes are determined
- Trading hours: When the market is open
- Settlement date: When payouts occur
Kalshi's contract specs are detailed. Read them carefully.
Place Your Order
- Click "Trade" on your chosen market
- Select "Yes" or "No"
- Choose order type:
- Market order: Execute immediately
- Limit order: Set your price
- Enter the number of contracts (each pays $1 if correct)
- Review total cost and potential profit
- Click "Submit Order"
Track Your Position
After your order fills:
- View positions in "Portfolio"
- See unrealized P&L in real time
- Set price alerts for markets you are watching
- Manage multiple positions from the dashboard
Kalshi Tips
- Use limit orders to get better prices
- Check market hours (some markets have restricted trading times)
- Kalshi provides 1099 tax forms at year end
- Mobile apps are available for iOS and Android
Finding a Good First Market
Not all markets are equal for beginners. Look for these characteristics:
High Liquidity
Markets with high trading volume have tighter spreads and are easier to enter and exit. Look for markets with thousands of dollars in daily volume.
Near-Term Resolution
Markets resolving in days or weeks give faster feedback. You will learn more quickly than waiting months for your first market to resolve.
Topics You Understand
Trade markets where you can form an informed opinion. If you follow politics closely, political markets may suit you. If you follow crypto, consider crypto markets.
Binary Outcomes
Simple Yes/No markets are easier to understand than multi-outcome markets. Start with binary markets before moving to more complex structures.
Understanding the Order Form
When you place a trade, you will see:
| Field | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Side | Yes or No (your prediction) |
| Amount | How much you want to spend |
| Price | Cost per share (also the implied probability) |
| Shares | Number of contracts you will receive |
| Potential Profit | What you earn if you are right |
| Fees | Trading fees deducted from your order |
Reading the Numbers
If you buy 100 Yes shares at $0.40 each:
- Cost: $40
- If Yes wins: You receive $100 (profit: $60)
- If No wins: You receive $0 (loss: $40)
After Your Trade
Should You Sell Early?
You might want to sell before resolution if:
- The price has moved in your favor and you want to lock in profit
- New information changes your view on the outcome
- You need the funds for another trade
- You want to cut your losses
You do not have to hold until resolution. Active traders frequently buy and sell before outcomes are known.
Common Beginner Mistakes
Avoid these pitfalls:
Markets with low volume have wide spreads and poor fills. You may pay much more (or receive much less) than the displayed price. Stick to liquid markets as a beginner.
Every market has specific rules for how outcomes are determined. Ambiguous rules can lead to unexpected resolutions. Always read the fine print before trading.
Betting too much on a single market concentrates your risk. Even "sure things" can go wrong. Keep individual positions small relative to your total bankroll.
Chasing markets that have already moved significantly often leads to losses. If a market has already priced in the news you are reacting to, you are probably too late.
Small fees add up over many trades. Factor fees into your expected profit calculations, especially on low-margin trades.
Next Steps
Congratulations on your first trade! Here is where to go next:
Polymarket Guide
Deep dive into Polymarket features, wallet setup, and advanced trading
Kalshi Guide
Complete guide to Kalshi features, account tiers, and market types
Trading Strategies
Learn position sizing, portfolio management, and risk control
Glossary
Reference guide for all prediction market terminology