Welcome to PredictionDocs
Welcome to PredictionDocs, the internet's definitive, encyclopedia-grade guide to participating in prediction markets.
In recent years, prediction markets have exploded in popularity, evolving from obscure academic experiments into multi-billion dollar financial engines that forecast political elections, economic shifts, and global events with unprecedented accuracy. Our mission is to demystify these platforms, providing you with factual, unbiased, and highly structured information.
What are Prediction Markets?
Prediction markets are specialized financial exchanges where individuals trade contracts based on the outcome of unknown future events. The trading price of these contracts directly reflects the crowd's perceived probability of the event occurring.
Who is this guide for?
PredictionDocs is engineered to serve a wide spectrum of users, from absolute beginners placing their first $10 trade to quantitative developers building automated arbitrage bots.
Absolute Beginners
Start your journey here. Learn exactly what prediction markets are, how probabilities are priced, and step-by-step instructions for funding your first account.
Traders & Investors
Elevate your skills. Explore advanced concepts like the Kelly Criterion for position sizing, Automated Market Makers (AMMs), and cross-platform hedging.
Platform Comparison
Navigate the ecosystem. Detailed, side-by-side comparisons of regulated fiat platforms (Kalshi) vs. decentralized crypto platforms (Polymarket).
Developers & Quants
Build the future. Access comprehensive documentation for interacting with exchange APIs, querying historical order books, and running trading algorithms.
How to Navigate This Site
Our documentation is strictly organized by Intents (what you want to achieve) and Scopes (the specific topic or platform). This ensures you never get lost in overlapping information.
1. Choose your Intent
Use the top navigation bar to select your primary goal: Platforms, Trading, Markets, Legal, or Developers.
2. Select a Scope
Use the left sidebar to drill down into specific sub-topics. For instance, under the Trading intent, you can select the Strategies scope.
3. Read the Overviews
Every single scope begins with an Overview page acting as a hub for that specific subject.
Ready to dive in?
If you are new to the space, we highly recommend following the "Getting Started" pathway sequentially to build a rock-solid foundation.
What are Prediction Markets?
Understand the core mechanics of trading probabilities and the Wisdom of Crowds.
Key Concepts & Terminology
Learn the language: Order books, AMMs, liquidity, and spreads.